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Taking a look at PairWise, nothing has been guaranteed

Sophomore C.J. Smith has been the River Hawks leading scorer this season. (Photo by George DeLuca/Connector)

Kyle Gaudette
Connector Editor

When it comes to who makes the NCAA tournament come mid-March, NCAA rankings mean absolutely nothing.

They are perfectly fine numbers to slap next to a university’s name. That’s exactly how the NCAA draws in their television crowds before the tournament. They throw a 1 next to say Duke and a 2 next to say North Carolina and boom, you got yourself a must-see marquee matchup. But when it comes time for the big tournament, those numbers are as non-existent as ten hours of sleep a night to a college student – which is why you should not feel as comfortable as you may be with your River Hawks.

That is not to discredit anything UMass Lowell has done on the ice this year. The NCAA rankings are a completely valid measuring stick to track regular season wins and losses, and for the River Hawks to be sniffing around the top 10 all season is no small feat. But, and this cannot be stressed enough, they mean next to nothing when figuring out the field of 16 for the tournament.

To tackle that issue, you need to look at the PairWise rankings.

What makes the PairWise different, and more fair, is its usage of Rating Percentage Index or RPI. RPI is a fantastic index, as it takes into account the wins and loses a team has, plus adds into the equation that team’s strength of schedule. It’s not as simple anymore as team X beat team Y. By using this metric, beating someone ranked higher in RPI will help you more than beating a team, say, ranked 50 – the same goes for losses.

RPI is the most fair metric used to determine who deserves to make the tournament. A team could go 30-1 yes, but if twenty-nine of those wins came against the Watertown Mass. YMCA rec. league, then the PairWise would reflect the quality of those wins.

Again, this is not meant to discredit anything your River Hawks have done this year, but to warn against getting too comfortable with the 11 you see next to UMass Lowell in the NCAA rankings.
Currently, the River Hawks are thirteenth in the PairWise rankings. So they are still in right? Well yes, but not by much.

There are six conferences in Division I college hockey, each of which, whether deservedly or undeservedly so is a debate for another article, get an automatic bid to the tournament. It’s simple – if you win your conference tournament, you get into the NCAA tournament.

And that is where things are getting tight for UMass Lowell.

There are currently two conferences (the WCHA and the AHA) where the top-seed is not ranked in the top sixteen of the PairWise. Michigan Tech currently leads the WHCA and is ranked eighteenth, while Robert Morris is atop the AHA and is currently ranked twenty-fifth. They are bad conferences yes, but that does not matter. The winner will automatically get in, that’s the rule.

UMass Lowell is essentially fifteenth, as those two potential conference winners will “steal a spot” from a team ranked in the top sixteen. To put it simply, if the NCAA tournament started today, the River Hawks would be the second-to-last team to make it.

There is not a lot of breathing room.

Fortunately, there are still options heading into a final weekend showdown with Boston College. The simplest of which would be to win the Hockey East tournament and get the automatic bid. Another Hockey East finals appearance would look good, but UMass Lowell is still looking for upsets to happen in-conference. Also, seeing as they are ranked eighteenth now, if Michigan Tech can run the table and win the WHCA, they will most likely move into the top sixteen in PairWise and would then not be stealing a spot from a team like UMass Lowell. But even that would not guarantee a spot for Lowell.

There is still a ton of hockey left this season. The River Hawks have the possibility to control their own destiny, but a couple more losses down the stretch and a quick elimination from the Hockey East tournament could keep them out.

I’m sorry to say it but someone has to – the River Hawks are on the bubble.